Draft Prospects: Golden State Warriors
You know what's funny? There are some out there that still have doubts that the Golden State Warriors are contenders in the Western Conference simply because of their unconventional style.If your looking to purchase
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Never mind that the team has arguably one of the league's best five point guards.
Never mind that they have a budding defensive player in the post.
Never mind that dynamic perimeter scorer has a young star developing behind him.
Oh, and never mind that the Warriors play with passion, chemistry, and respect for one of the greatest coaches of all time.
The only way the Warriors will be able to shut these critics up is by building upon their successes from the 2006-07 season and making a deeper run into the playoffs. The team has the luxury of already having a strong seven-man rotation (should they re-sign Matt Barnes, as expected) and holes in their roster that can easily be filled with the addition of a few role players.
Going into the Draft later this month, the Warriors have the 18th, 36th, and 46th overall picks and certainly have an opportunity to add the skillsets that they are lacking in.
What should the Warriors be looking to do? Well ...
Let the Movement Die
It was just about eleven months ago that the superbloggers over at Golden State of Mind started The Yi Movement, calling attention to and hoping for the Warriors to land the Chinese draft prospect Yi Jianlian. Undoubtedly due to GSoM's work, the single most-asked question Warrior fans have asked since last summer is "what are the chances that the Dubs land Yi?"
With all the hype that surrounded Yi, it did seem like the Bay Area would be a great fit for him; even Yi's handlers feel that way, granting the Warriors and Bulls the status of the only two teams on Yi's "accepted" list.
The reasons are simple - in addition to the Bay Area having a tremendous Asian population that would embrace their newest Warrior jewel, Yi seems to be the type of player that would fit Don Nelson's uptempo system and fills the need the team's need for a power forward. Highlights of Yi's game show his quickness and athleticism, able to get to the rack with relative ease against his opponents; even Pau Gasol was embarrassed as Yi blew by him in the FIBA Championships last year.
So Warrior Nation has been buzzing with anticipation for their shot at him and the door seems to have opened for the team to move up significantly in the draft to get him. Rumors have swirled around Jason Richardson for months, especially out of Chicago where Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune seems to be convinced that the Warriors will look to move Richardson this offseason because the team is close to surpassing the luxury tax threshold. With Boston reportedly looking into moving the fifth overall pick in the draft, the Warriors could theoretically put a package consisting of Richardson and their first rounder (#18) in hopes of acquiring the Celtics' pick, Theo Ratliff (a huge expiring contract), and Sebastian Telfair, whose future in Boston has been up in the air after another gun-related arrest in April.
Although the deal looks attractive because the Warriors would be able to get Yi and slake their need to slash payroll, Warrior fans eager to see this transaction take place need to consider what the Warriors would be giving up.
Sports fans across the nation have bellyached for years about the disloyalty of players, coaches, and anyone else that jumps ship or complains about their situation on a certain team. Chasing the money has become a regular occurrence and those who have the money still want more - like their team building a contender. Some way or another, these stars enforce the entitlement they feel they deserve.
But Jason Richardson has been the antithesis to that kind of player in Oakland. He's worked hard, kept his mouth shut, and been loyal since Day One to the franchise that gave him a chance and took a risk on him. Richardson particularly understands the commitment of perhaps the most loyal fans in the league, making a concerted effort in connecting with the community and exerting everything he has to give the fans the winning team he felt they deserved.
For years, Richardson carried this franchise on his back and did so with a blue-collar attitude. Now fans suddenly are willing to let him go for an unproven but flashy star in Yi? The what have you done for me lately mentality doesn't really even fit either - Richardson and Baron Davis just took the franchise farther than it has been in twelve years.
The bottom line here is that dealing Richardson immediately shuts the proverbial championship window that the Warriors have just opened. This is the first year Richardson was surrounded with significant talent - Davis was healthy enough for the playoff run, Andris Biedrins and Matt Barnes provided timely rebounds with their toughness inside, Monta Ellis emerged as a potential star, and Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson brought experience and offensive firepower. This team deserves at least one more shot at making things work, especially because they have the means for doing so.
Not only would trading for Yi end Richardson's run in Oakland, Harrington - whose locker is directly beside Richardson's - would also likely be on his way out soon as well. Harrington and Yi basically play the same position and keeping Harrington's hefty contract on the books makes little sense if the Warriors plan on bringing him off the bench to back Yi up.
Harrington may not engender the same deep-seeded feelings Richardson does because he's only been on the team for a few months, but behind the scenes, it was Harrington that really pushed the Warriors over the hump to make the playoffs. His enthusiasm was infectious and he felt that because the Warriors had traded for him, he was being depended on to get this team into the postseason. That personal accountability inspired his new teammates and brought about a unity to the roster that helped propel the Warriors to their first playoff berth in more than a decade.
It was Harrington that uplifted his teammates after a late season loss in Portland. It was Harrington's vocal confidence in Coach Nelson's system that contributed to the Warriors' unquestioned trust in almost every decision Nellie made, leading to a team that played hard for their coach because they believed he was doing all he could for the team to win. And it was Harrington's scruffy voice and goofy smile that helped keep the mood light in a locker room that should have been tense as they were on the brink of breaking the playoff drought.
Bringing Yi in immediately compromises the chemistry and cohesiveness the Warriors' success was built upon. These Warriors genuinely liked each other and a significant change like moving Richardson and eventually Harrington could be a huge step in the wrong direction.
In considering what the Warriors would be giving up for Yi, is it really worth it? If they follow the plan outlined below, they have no reason to desperately revamp the roster because the tools they'll be adding would lead to a deep playoff run before Nellie's three-year deal expires.
Although the Warriors should pass on one international superstar on June 26, another is waiting in the wings for the team to focus on.
Cutting the Dead Weight
Adding size should be the Warriors biggest concern over the offseason. The difficult part, though, is finding a big man that is compatible with Don Nelson's system.
The Warriors took center Patrick O'Bryant with the ninth overall pick last season and didn't get much out of him because he simply isn't the kind of big man that Nelson feels he can use. Nellie had strong words for O'Bryant last year after O'Bryant failed to meet the coach's expectations and became the first player selected in the lottery to ever be sent down to the NBDL. "I told him if he goes down to the D-League and isn't a dominant player, there should be red flags all over the place, and he should be the first to notice," Nelson said. "He's not only not dominating, he's not playing very well. He's a long-term project. I really liked him the first week of training camp, but I assumed there would be great progress. He hasn't gotten better one bit."
O'Bryant simply doesn't fit the open-court system the Warriors run. He thrives in having his back to the basket and doesn't have the quickness or conditioning to get up and down the court with a bunch of guards. Because his body still hasn't filled out completely, he was bumped around rather easily when trying to defend stronger low-post players and didn't have the leaping ability or instincts to alter a lot of shots on defense.
If he can't help the team on defense and doesn't fit the offensive scheme, its time for O'Bryant to get a fresh start and for the Warriors to cash in on whatever value he has left (which, sources say, isn't very much). Traditional big men (as opposed to the mobile, athletic big man) typically take longer to develop and the Warriors simply cannot waste anymore time in waiting for O'Bryant to become an NBA-ready player.
O'Bryant isn't the only Warrior on the plank of players whose potential is being wasted in this system - Sarunas Jasikevicius has yet to enjoy any kind of success in the NBA after being a superstar playing for powerhouse Maccabi Tel Aviv.
There have been conflicting reports on whether the Lithuanian guard will opt out of his contract or not, but most insiders feel Jasikevicius will give the NBA one more shot and he expects to be traded to a team that wants him enough to give him playing time. When moved from Indiana to Golden State, Jasikevicius was nothing more than salary filler, as the Warriors targets were Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington.
Packaging the two together with their 46th overall pick, the Warriors could theoretically make a small move with the Atlanta Hawks that would bring in Anthony Johnson, Lorenzen Wright, and Salim Stoudamire. The deal isn't going to wow anyone from either side, but both teams will be able to pick up pieces that they can use for improvement.
Jasikevicius would immediately provide a stable, veteran guard for the Hawks who can play either spot in the backcourt. With Speedy Claxton's questionable knees and Tyronn Lue's limited abilities, Jasikevicius may be able to start in Atlanta and can help take significant minutes as a two-guard playing alongside Claxton or Lue when Joe Johnson needs to rest. With the Hawks expected to take Javaris Crittenton, who is not ready to contribute right away, the team will need the steady hand Jasikevicius can provide.
O'Bryant gives the Hawks, who are perpetually rebuilding, a young center they can be patient with and develop next to their probable pick at #3, Brandan Wright. Between O'Bryant, Wright, and Shelden Williams, the Hawks would have a very young core of big men and would allow Josh Smith to play his natural SF position.
The Hawks currently do not have a second-round draft pick, and for a team with so many holes, the chance to bring more talent to training camp before making cuts should be appealing.
On the Warriors end, nothing great is coming in return, but a few holes will be filled with the deal. Lorenzen Wright immediately can come in and fill the gap as a reserve big man for the team, playing behind Biedrins. Wright can help crash the boards and provides an average low-post game on both offense and defense. His veteran presence on the block would be a welcome addition to a Warrior team that was abused in the paint and was outrebounded handily by the Utah Jazz in the playoffs.
At this stage in his career, Anthony Johnson is nothing more than a coach wearing a uniform, but he gives the Warriors some depth should any injuries affect Ellis or Davis. Not much will be expected from him, but when he'll be asked to come in for spot minutes here and there, he'll play his heart out and provide a perimeter defensive presense.
Lastly, Salim Stoudamire could rejuvenate whatever is left in his NBA career under Nelson. A dead-eye shooter in college, Stoudamire wouldn't be asked to handle as many lead guard responsibilities as he was in Atlanta. When he gets playing time under Nellie, he's going to be asked to do what he does best - spot up and shoot. Again, like Johnson, he won't get much playing time, but an opportunity to fill a role is there. The Warriors are a three-point happy team but don't have anyone as yet who specializes in the long ball. That's exactly what Stoudamire can do, as his presence on the roster adds a critical SG on the depth chart.
Split the Time Down Low
After trimming the fat and getting some kind of value for players that don't do much for the team, the Warriors can start the process of finding the two players they can add with the 18th and 36th overall picks. Both are prime spots to find the mobile big man the team covets.
Of the several expected first round big man prospects, the Warriors would particularly love to get their hands on four of them that could slide down to them: Jason Smith (Colorado State), Spencer Hawes (Washington), Tiago Splitter (Brazil), and Josh McRoberts (Duke). All four are slated to be taken in the middle of the first round, but Smith and Hawes are wowing teams during their private workouts and have been sliding up draft boards of late. Hawes has been projected to go as high as 9th to the Chicago Bulls and Smith could go to Detroit at the 15th spot.
These four prospects are the exact players Nelson is looking for: they have the bulk and height to bang for rebounds and play solid defense, but are quick, mobile, and athletic enough to participate in early offense. Hawes and Splitter both played more perimeter roles earlier in their playing days, so they are very capable on the perimeter. Interestingly, all four prospects don't have great back to the basket games; they'd rather face their opponents up at the high post to blow by them or rise for a mid-range jumper.
Most importantly, scouts have seen all of these particular player play solid defense and show an ability to block shots, rebound, and provide good help defense. Simply put, the Warriors top need is a defender on the block, able to deny position to opposing big men, alter the shots of penetrating guards, and slide over for weakside defensive help - these are the guys in this draft that can do that.
At the number 18 slot, the Warriors should be able to at least choose one of these guys. The problem for the Warriors is that the three teams ahead of them - Detroit, New Jersey, and Washington - all could use big men to help their teams out. Detroit and Washington could look for help in the backcourt as well.
So where does that leave the Warriors? If things play out the way they should ...
With the 18th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Golden State Warriors select ... Tiago Splitter from Brazil.
... the Warriors could very well could end up with the most NBA ready big man of the four mentioned above. With Smith and Hawes doing so well in workouts, they're stock has risen significantly and has bumped Splitter's down. It was once doubtful that Splitter would last past the lottery, but his shaky performance in the Euroleague Final Four in combination with the rise of Smith and Hawes could make him available for the Warriors at 18. McRoberts should also still be available, but Splitter is the Warriors' guy.
Splitter has flirted with entering the draft for the past few years but has chosen to go back to Europe to refine his game. His mobility is astounding, able to beat his opponents down the court regularly, giving him easy baskets. He's a solid passer from the post and is a very intelligent player who has grown up playing the game and understands its nuances. With long arms (7'2 wingspan), quickness, a big body (6'11, 240), and a high basketball IQ, Splitter is the ideal defender who rarely will take chances that compromise his positioning on his opponent. That kind of patience is critical in the NBA game.
Splitter should be able to contribute immediately as a backup to Al Harrington at the PF position. Although he will likely never be an All-Star, Tiago Splitter is the kind of prospect who can become a consistent contributor for an NBA team.
Taking the Big Risk
With Spiltter on board, the Warriors will be watching other teams intently until they select again at #36 and will have the luxury of taking a risk at that spot. Most of their team will have already been constructed with Wright and Splitter being brought in, so the team can look to take a high-risk, high-reward type of player in the second round. Because those players do not have big, long, guaranteed deals, the Warriors can bring in a guy for training camp and let him go should things not work out.
Again, the Warriors should be looking to go big and shore up their front line with another six fouls they can use. But this time, they can be a little more creative and take an intriguing prospect who could thrive in Nelson's system.
With the 36h pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Golden State Warriors select ... Glen Davis from LSU.
Glen Davis is the kind of project player with the raw tools to be a very, very good player in the NBA. Teams will have to be patient with him to teach him what he needs to know, but there is tremendous upside for a man of that size (6'8, 310) and strength to move as gracefully as he does. Glen Davis has already shown what he can do offensively in the SEC, taking guys to the basket with phenomenal ball-handling ability for a big man. Because of his sheer size, stopping him from establishing offensive position or while he's penetrating is a very tall task for anyone, including hardened NBA veterans. Glen Davis has a developed mid-range jumper in his repertoire as well. He's also considered a very team-oriented player who is loved by his teammates; adding a guy like Glen Davis to a locker room that is already tight should only help matters.
What Glen Davis must work on is his defense and rebounding. He needs to maintain aggressiveness on both ends of the court, which he didn't necessarily do all the time in college. Should he be tough and aggressive in the paint, willing to scrap for boards and play hard, he could be a steal in the second round. Controlling his weight will also be an important aspect of his success, and Glen Davis seems to understand that, reportedly already showing a slimmer body in his workouts after losing 15 pounds.
Contingency Plans
Every team needs to know what to do should their guys be taken off the board. If Splitter isn't available, the Warriors could take Josh McRoberts with the 18th overall pick. There are three players that are projected to be taken in the mid-20s that the Warriors could take a look at in Sean Williams (PF, Boston College), Dominic McGuire (F, Frenso State), or DeVon Hardin (C, Cal). The Warriors could look into sliding down later in the first for these players, but they'll have to take a PF in that first round in one way or another.
It is highly unlikely that Glen Davis will already be taken at the #36 spot, but its a possibility. The team can look into Herbert Hill (Providence), Jermareo Davidson (PF/C, Alabama), Carl Landry (PF, Purude) or Kyrylo Fesenko (C, Ukraine) with their second round choice, but each of them would be considered a stretch that early.
The Outlook
When all is said and done, the Warriors could end up with an incredibly versatile squad that looks something like this:
PG: Baron Davis / Monta Ellis / Anthony Johnson
SG: Jason Richardson / Kelenna Azubuike* / Salim Stoudamire
SF: Stephen Jackson / Matt Barnes*
PF: Al Harrington / Tiago Splitter / Glen Davis
C: Andris Biedrins / Lorenzen Wright / Adonal Foyle
* re-signed
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