Why the Celtics Will Make the Playoffs, and Why Celtics Nation Shouldn’t be Celebrating
The Boston Celtics will contend for a spot in the ’07-’08 NBA playoffs. Their fans, however, will likely not see this as cause for celebration. This is a team that just finished last in the worst conference in basketball; this is a team that, over the past four seasons, has won just 42 percent of its games; a team that traded its first-round pick in last year’s draft for Sebastian Telfair, a sub-par point guard who has caused more troubles for the organization than he has assists; a team that hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2003—and all of this as part of the worst division in basketball. Yet, fortunately for the Celtics, that’s also precisely why they can maintain hope for this upcoming season. That, and Danny Ainge has finally made an offseason move that isn’t entirely ludicrous.
In looking ahead to next season, the most obvious cause for optimism is the arrant poverty of the Eastern Conference. First, the Cleveland Cavaliers—yes, the same Cleveland Cavaliers organization that features the likes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and Eric Snow as regular starters, and that has never won an NBA championship—represented the East in the Finals this year. Don’t get me wrong. I like the Cavs. They play team basketball; they hustle; they stress fundamentals; and in many ways, mostly in the form of King James, they represent a long-awaited and –needed return to old-school, defensive-minded hard-nosed basketball. Still, the Cavs’ embarrassingly poor Finals performance against the San Antonio Spurs speaks volumes about the quality of their Conference—in short, it’s not good.
And the Atlantic is the worst division in this diminutive Eastern Conference. One need only to have witnessed the Raptors-Nets match-up—both hail from the Atlantic—in the first round of this year’s playoffs to appreciate how poor the Division truly is. Vince Carter was the best player on the court. Enough said. And if that isn’t enough to convince you, consider this: the Nets, who eventually won that series, were a mere 41-41 during the regular season. Their coach is Lawrence Frank. Definitely enough said. In sum, the Celtics play in the worst division in the worst conference in basketball; they are amongst the worst of the worst. That’s at least one reason, odd as it seems, to maintain hope for the future of the franchise.
But, you might rejoin, the Celtics finished last in the Atlantic last season—they are the worst of the worst of the worst. If they couldn’t get it done against poor competition just four months ago, why should they be able to now? Good question. Here are a couple reasons to believe 2007-2008 will be different for the Celtics:
Paul Pierce will turn 30 at the beginning of the season
While a team’s superstar turning 30 is generally cause for concern, the occasion might be a happy one for the Celtics. Despite his brilliance, Pierce is selfish. He shoots the ball more than 18 times-a-game, on average, and counters with just 4 assists. LeBron James manages 6-per-game, by comparison. Even when Antoine Walker, another leading-scorer type at the time, played alongside him, Pierce was attempting 20 field goals and another 6 from beyond the arc each game. Indeed, Pierce’s prolific style was exactly what made Walker and him incompatible as teammates. With age, hopefully, comes wisdom. The older Pierce gets, and the less durable and athletic, the more he will be forced to rely on his teammates. While he must remain the go-to player, and should shoot about 15 times-a-game, Pierce needs to force less, and pass more. Antoine Walker, now 30, accepted a lesser role when he joined the Heat two years ago, and he went on to win a championship. Perhaps turning 30 will help Pierce recognize that a shift in that direction would be good for him—and the Celtics—as well.
Ray Allen
At first glance, picking up Ray Allen from the Supersonics might have seemed like another boneheaded decision from Danny Ainge and a Celtics organization that has repeatedly befuddled fans with bizarre offseason moves. Allen is 32 and recently had surgery on both ankles. He, like Pierce, is a shoot first, pass second player who might prove incompatible on the court with his new teammate. By all accounts, though, Allen’s ankles are recovering well. The surgery he underwent—removing bone spurs—is fairly routine, and the recovery time minimal. At 32, Allen managed to score a career-high 26.4 points-per-game with Seattle last season, and was almost 40 percent from beyond the arc. As for his relationship with Pierce, all indications are that Allen is more than ready to share. At the press conference following the announcement of the draft-night trade, Allen held up his jersey to the press front-facing, show-casing the “Celtics” on the front, as opposed to the “Allen” on the back. Perhaps I’m reading too far into it, but that tells me Allen is prepared to be a team player, one who will complement Pierce rather than counteract him.
And Allen can do more than score. He represents, for one, a much-needed veteran figure on a very young Celtics team. He has played 11 seasons in the NBA; that’s more than Rajon Rondo, Al Jefferson, and Gerald Green—the likely starters alongside Allen and Pierce—combined. Leadership is exactly what the Celtics lacked last season, and Allen could very well be the answer. In addition to his offensive prowess, Allen’s old-school approach to the game stresses fundamentals. He is a career 90 percent free-throw shooter, averaged just under 5 rebounds-per-game last season, and plays hard defensively, forcing a steal-and-a-half every game throughout his career. In short, Ray Allen is a mature and complete player on a young and decidedly incomplete team. Hopefully he can help shift them in his direction.
Al Jefferson
You simply can’t be much of an NBA playoff contender without a good big-man. This holds true both now (San Antonio has Duncan, Miami has Shaq, etc.) and throughout the League’s history (L.A. had Abdul-Jabbar, Boston had Russell and then the Chief, etc.). While Al Jefferson is not yet a franchise center, he is greatly improved, looking progressively more confident and dominant throughout last season. While averaging just 7 points and 4.5 rebounds over his first two seasons, he hit his stride in ‘06-’07, jumping up to 16 points and 11 rebounds. His field-goal and free-throw percentages improved, and he firmed up defensively, averaging 1.5 blocks-per-game. Jefferson is not the ideal size for a shut-down center, but he is finally learning to use his athleticism to overcome the size advantage of his slower counterparts. Moreover, the Celtics’ second-round drafting of Glen “Big Baby” Davis will help. At 6’9” and 290, Glen Davis has earned his nickname, and should be able to help clear space underneath for Jefferson. If Jefferson can continue to improve and present a legitimate threat to opposing teams, Pierce and Allen will find it much easier not only to get the ball into him, but to find open shots for themselves as well.
So, for all those discouraged Celtics fans out there—and I am certainly one of them—there are reasons to feel positive about the ’07-’08 season. There is even, I daresay, hope for a playoff run. Again, though, this hope comes mostly from a recognition of the complete dearth of talent in the rest of the Atlantic Division, and the Eastern Conference in general, and should in no way be read as a defense of the organization. Red Auerbach, I’m sure, would roll over in his grave if I attempted to validate the decisions made by Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers over the past few years. Celtics Nation is one of much history and pride. It should hold itself up to higher standards than those posed by the horrific division in which the Celtics are lucky enough to currently play. In fact, I agree that firing both Ainge and Rivers would be one step toward meeting higher standards, if only to send a message to fans that mediocrity, and especially downright impotence, will not be tolerated. Still, ’07-’08 might present a brighter horizon for an ailing organization that once stood on top of the world.
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